OTTs have simply converted cellular services as pipes.
I remember while beinn in Malaysia, I used to spend only a few dollars per month to buy 4G subscription: I literally used to make zero legacy calls. Even if I had to call Uber or Grab driver, I would make him/her a whatsapp call.
It was very challenging ARPU for the operators in Malaysia.
But then, the best operators will shift to new services.
In Africa, I read cellular operators allow people to transfer bitcoin by using VAS via SMS.
Like if I need to send bitcoin to someone and I do not have access to internet, I just send a predefined code via sms.
Sending money via SMS is a massive innovation and a big game changer.
Imagine mobile handsets becoming bitcoin wallets, which do not require internet access for transferring money across the country.
If cellular operators charge only 0.1% of the money transferred, it can lead to massive hike in ARPU for the operators.
Since everyone gets KYCed while buying SIM, there’s no threat of illicit use of money transfer.
Now, lets try to think big: lets suppose these cellular operators host a ‘work marketplace’… something like Upwork or Fiverr.
You apply to those jobs in the platforms which are hosted by the operator. The buyer and seller of these services pay via sms.
Upwork and such platforms make billions of dollars a year, just by charging commissions.
I mean to say, these cellular operators will need to venture into new ideas: explore new, wild, crazy and stupid ideas.
Those who experiment, they will survive.
The rest will become Nortel, Lucent and Alcatel
Cellular operators can also host P2P markets for bitcoin: like if someone needs Naira against bitcoin, and someone else wants to buy bitcoin against Naira, they could do so by broadcasting SMS.
The operator matches the buyer with the best offer with the seller with the best ask.
Everything happens over SMS, and in the end the buyer gets bitcoin and seller gets Naira which he can get from nearest cellular operator franchise.